Handicapping Baseball Totals
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- Total betting is essentially a 50/50 proposition on whether the total points scored by both teams will go over or under the bookmaker’s posted total. Also known as over/under betting, this type of wager is available on almost any sport you can think of: football, basketball, baseball, hockey and soccer to.
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How to Handicap Baseball Games
by Predictem.com Staff
Handicapping baseball is a bit different than handicapping other sports. The reason for this is that stats are more are involved in helping decide if a play has value or not (compared to other sports where you may handicap more on emotion/motivation etc.)
While one could make a case for any one of a zillion stats to be factored into capping MLB games, there are some more important than others. These include but are not limited to:
WHIP
ERA
Hitter vs. Pitcher Stats
Pitcher vs. Team
Grass vs. Turf
Night vs. Day
Outdoors vs. Indoors
Team Batting Average over last 5 games
Hot or Cold Team
Bullpens
Home vs. Road
Errors
Weather
We also like the fact that baseball offers a unique opportunity; The ability to hit less than 50% of your games and still turn a profit. We’ll get into that later in this article.
We’ll kick off our baseball capping tutorial with W.H.I.P. (For more info see: WHIP) Fantasy baseball players rejoice! All those years of being a stat rat will pay off handsomely as WHIP is a huge handicapping tool. For those of you not familiar with the term, it stands for walks + hits divided by innings pitched. By doing this, you will come out with a number that usually ranges in between 1.00 and 2.00.
Mlb Handicapping Systems
With that being said, what is a good whip and what is a bad whip? The lower the better. Every blue moon or so you may see a pitcher (usually a closer) with a whip of less than 1.00. On the flip side, you won’t see too many whip’s close to 2.00 or above because these players don’t last long in the big leagues.
A whip of 1.00 to 1.20 is very good. This would indicate the pitcher gives up around 1 hit/walk combined per inning pitched. These pitchers are likely to have a fair amount of wins, holds or saves as putting a lesser amount of men on base usually means lower ERA as well.
A whip of 1.25 to 1.35 is a bit more common and would denote a decent to middle of the road pitcher. These guys aren’t bad, but their not the top of the line either.
Handicapping Baseball Totals Mlb
A whip of 1.40 and above tells us we’re looking at a pitcher that is either a gas can in that he lacks movement on his ball and is getting hit hard or lacks control and puts a bunch of guys on base via the walk. They can be great “go againsts” assuming the opposing pitcher is decent and your not paying too high of a price to bet against the high whip pitcher. It should also be noted that a game offering a match-up between 2 high whip pitchers can be a great shot at hitting an easy OVER bet.
Baseball Handicapping System
Kansas City at Cleveland (July 23,24,25)
The Royals are in a sorry state as August approaches (5.02 team E.R.A., .255 BA, which amounts to dead last in the American League). They posses a 12-31 road record, which makes them unusable as any type of play. Kansas City traded away there best player in Carlos Beltran, and would like to dump more of their veterans in order to stockpile young minor league talent. Last year was a fluke when this team finished near .500 and we don't expect that to happen again any time soon. The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins should dominate the division. The Indians continue to hover near the .500 mark and we welcome the opportunity to take them especially here at Jacobs Field. Cleveland is scoring more than five runs per game and they will be one of the few teams to watch as the pennant race heats up. The Indians did a superb job of rebuilding once the 2001 season ended. They traded away all of there high priced veterans except for SS Omar Vizquel and have great young talent in Casey Blake and Travis Hafner. This is a team that if kept together could be a contender for years to come. We will take the Tribe in all three games and expect them to show a healthy profit. Most games come down to who has the better players and when Cleveland and Kansas City square off there is a decided advantage favoring the Tribe.
St. Louis at Cincinnati (July 26,27,28)
The Cardinals are rolling at nearly thirty games over .500 this season. The posses the best record in baseball and have won eight of the ten games played against Cincinnati this season. We expect nothing but the same as this series resumes along the Ohio River.
Cincinnati's pitching is finally catching up to them. Their bullpen is overworked and their starters seldom ever see the sixth inning. This is a recipe for disaster as the season winds on. Counter this with Ken Griffey Jr. out of the line-up and that points directly to a pounding that will be handed out by the Cardinals.
St. Louis has the best road record in baseball (31-16) and we think the Reds will be hard pressed to finish the season above .500. Play the Cards in all three games and watch your pocketbook grow.
Last week's record on series write-ups 5-3
Best of Luck with your weekend's wagers - Doc's Sports
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